$74 Billion at Risk: The Disaster of Government Running Business Vs the Prosperity Through Private Enterprises

*A Dare Warning to the government - Don't Turn Livestock Into Another Ajaokuta Wreck*

_Content Recommendation: Policy Analysis | Economic Reform | Governance_ written and adapted from Hon. Dele Kelvin Oye

*Introduction: The Cost of Government Handling Businesses*

Hon. Dele Kelvin Oye, former National President of NACCIMA and ex-Chairman of the Organised Private Sector of Nigeria, put it bluntly at the 2026 Vanguard Economic Discourse: _“When government tries to operate businesses, disaster follows.”_

His warning came with a $74 billion price tag. Nigeria’s livestock sector is projected to grow from $32 billion to $74 billion in the next 10 years. 

But Oye cautioned it could become _“another Ajaokuta”_ if government repeats the mistake of acting as operator instead of facilitator. 

The message is clear: Government has a track record of running businesses into the ground. The private sector knows how to build them up. Government should regulate, provide infrastructure, and get out of the trading floor.

*Companies Run and Ruined by Government: The Trail of Waste*

Nigeria’s history is littered with state-run enterprises that drained public funds and delivered little value. While Oye’s paper specifically names *Ajaokuta Steel Company* as the symbol of state failure, the broader pattern is undeniable.

*1. Ajaokuta Steel Company*

- *Status*: Failed. Decades of construction, billions sunk, yet never produced steel commercially.

- *Waste*: Though exact figures vary, the project has gulped over *$8 billion* across multiple administrations with no output. Oye uses it as the archetype of _“disaster”_ when government operates business. 

Beyond Ajaokuta, Nigeria’s failed state enterprises include: Nigerian Airways, NITEL, NEPA/PHCN, Nigerian National Shipping Line, and dozens of moribund refineries. 

Each followed the same script: political interference, no profit motive, mismanagement, and eventual collapse funded by taxpayers. 

As Oye noted, debt servicing consumed *65% to 124% of government revenue in 2023*— a fiscal catastrophe partly fueled by propping up failed state businesses.

*The New Paradigm: Government Should Regulate, Provide, Then Leave the Business Operations to Private Sector*

Oye’s paper at the Vanguard Economic Discourse was titled: _‘The government as facilitator, not operator: a new paradigm for Nigeria’s livestock industry’_. That distinction matters.

*What Government Should Do:*

1. *Regulate Fairly*: End the _“rent-seeking economy rigged against most Nigerians”_. Banks buying treasury bills instead of funding the real sector shows the economy is rigged for a few. Regulation must level the field.

2. *Provide Infrastructure*: Power, roads, rail, water, digital connectivity. The Minister of Livestock noted Nigeria’s challenges are worsened by _“internal constraints”_— infrastructure gaps that government alone can coordinate.

3. *Ensure Policy Stability*: As Finance Minister Oyedele noted, _“Policy alone is not enough. Execution, competence and accountability will define outcomes.”_ Abrupt reversals kill investment.

*What Government Should NOT Do:*

Run the abattoir. Own the ranch. Manage the feed mill. _“When government tries to operate businesses, disaster follows”_. The private sector brings capital, efficiency, innovation, and accountability to shareholders — not to the next budget cycle.

*The $74 Billion Livestock Warning: Don’t Repeat Ajaokuta*

The livestock sector is Nigeria’s next big bet. Minister Idi Muktar Maiha says new policies can grow it to $74 billion. It’s central to _“food security… a pillar of national security and socio-economic stability”_. 

But Oye’s warning is stark: If government inserts itself as an operator — owning ranches, running processing plants, dictating prices — the sector will become _“another Ajaokuta”_.

*The Danger of Repeating Past Mistakes:*

1. *Fiscal Drain*: With debt service already swallowing up to 124% of revenue, Nigeria cannot afford another white-elephant project.

2. *Market Distortion*: State operators crowd out private capital, scare investors, and create the _“rent-seeking”_ environment Oye condemned.

3. *Food Insecurity*: _“Over 130 million citizens are now multidimensionally poor”_. A failed livestock policy means higher prices, less protein, more unrest. _“Food security must be treated… as a pillar of national security”_. 

Government meddling turns opportunity into another museum of waste. The private sector should raise the cattle, process the meat, and export the leather. Government should ensure roads to move them, power to process them, and regulations to keep the market fair.

*Conclusion: Courage to Facilitate, Not Operate*

Nigeria stood _“at the precipice of economic catastrophe”_ in May 2023. We cannot afford nostalgia for state-owned business empires. The evidence is in: Ajaokuta failed. The model failed.

As Oye told the Vanguard Economic Discourse, we need _“rigorous inquiry, fearless analysis, and the courage to speak truth to power”_. 

Here’s the truth: Government’s job is not to sell beef. It’s to make sure beef can be sold — by Nigerians, for Nigerians, at profit. e190

Let the private sector handle business. Let government handle governance. The $74 billion livestock sector, and Nigeria’s future, depend on it.

*Key Takeaway*: Facilitate. Don’t operate. Regulate. Don’t trade. Provide infrastructure. Don’t compete. That’s how you avoid another Ajaokuta.

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