The Wrong Question of: “Are You Better Off Than 2023?” Misses the Point

Many people ask today, and I heard it again at the recent MBA conference in Enugu:  

“Is your life better now than it was two years ago?”  

Some people answer with a loud “No.” 

While 

Some others who befit from NERFUND, Unprecedented Road/Rail Infrastructures that created jobs for several thousands of construction workers, LG Autonomy, Pension Reform Beneficiaries, Prompt Salaries payments, etc would say "Yes"

*But the problem isn’t the answer. The problem is the question*

That question assumes that if we had done nothing — if we had kept things exactly as they were in May 2023 — then life today would look the same as it did back then. 

That a liter of petrol would still cost what it did. That a bag of rice would cost the same. That the dollar rate would not have moved.  

That assumption is the biggest mistake.

*Here’s what May 2023 really looked like:*  

Nigeria was at “amber,” about to turn red. Not the kind of amber that turns green. The kind that turns into a full stop.

1. *We were broke.* Nigeria was spending 97% of federal government revenue just to pay debt. That means almost every naira we earned went to lenders. Salaries, roads, hospitals — we borrowed for all of it.

2. *We were printing money.* The government had printed about ₦30 trillion to spend. That’s a key reason prices are high today. You can’t create cash from thin air without inflation.

3. *We were losing dollars.* Our balance of payments was negative. More dollars were leaving than coming in.

4. *NNPC was in the red.* NNPC was supposed to send money to the federation account. Instead, it said government owed _it_. Why? Because all NNPC earnings went to petrol subsidy. When that wasn’t enough, NNPC took oil meant for royalties from other oil companies, sold it, and used the cash for subsidy. Still not enough.  

   Then NNPC told the tax agency, FIRS, “We can’t pay petroleum profit tax.” That tax money also went to subsidy. Still not enough.

5. *We mortgaged the future.* When options ran out, NNPC started using future crude oil production as collateral. This is real, not fiction. They borrowed dollars at high interest rates — double digits — just to subsidize petrol we were burning today.  

The result? Today, Nigeria barely has 200,000 barrels per day of crude oil that isn’t already pledged to lenders. By my estimate, that would have lasted less than six months.

*What would have happened without reforms?*  

If these reforms had not started in May 2023, by the end of that year Nigeria would have run out of future oil to borrow against. And you can’t print dollars.  

No dollars means no petrol imports. We would have looked like Sri Lanka in 2022: You’d hold ₦10,000 and pray to find one liter of fuel to buy.  

There would be no Dangote Refinery either. No business can survive if it must sell fuel at ₦160 or ₦200 while waiting on government subsidy that government can’t pay.  

The economy was grinding to a halt. The Tinubu reforms stopped the free fall.

*Recommendations*

1. *Change the question.* Don’t ask, “Are you better off than May 2023?” Ask, “Where would we be if we had done nothing?” Policy should be judged against the alternative, not against a past that was unsustainable.

2. *Communicate the counterfactual.* Government and analysts must show clear models of the “no reform” scenario — fuel queues, dollar crash, total debt default — so citizens understand the baseline.

3. *Protect the vulnerable, faster.* Reforms are necessary, but pain is real. Scale up direct cash transfers, food support, and transport relief. Speed and transparency matter more than size.

4. *Lock in fiscal discipline.* Ban future “ways and means” printing. Make subsidy removal irreversible by law. No government should mortgage future oil again.

5. *Show the receipts.* Publish monthly data: how much subsidy was saved, where it went, and what debt was avoided. Trust comes from numbers, not slogans.

*Conclusion*

“Are you better off than two years ago?” is the wrong question because “two years ago” was a ticking time bomb. May 2023 wasn’t stability — it was the last moment before the crash.  

The reforms were not about making life easy overnight. They were about avoiding a total collapse. We chose pain with a purpose over pain with no end.  

*The real debate should be:* Now that we’ve stopped the bleeding, how do we heal faster and share the recovery? That’s the question worth asking.  

*Join the Crusade! 🚀*

Share this message, wake up a fellow Nigerian! Let's sustain this momentum and build a better Nigeria.

Click to Join Our WhatsApp Channel